18607 Windy Stone Dr

Houston, TX 77084

$353,999D-

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,068 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,573/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,856
• Tax + insurance: −$848
• HOA: −$61
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-733/mo
• Annual: $-8,797/yr
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.87%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $99,120

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $354k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-733 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (36.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (27.3% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($322k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 494 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 13515% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?