18607 Windy Stone Dr · Houston, TX 77084

$353,999

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2014 6,542 sqft lot $115/sqft · 19% below area Est $435k · 19% under $61/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 5 bedroom home in Grand Oaks! Featuring mahogany cabinets, stainless steel appliances, granite counters, and a beautiful backsplash in the kitchen. Enjoy walk-in closets, spacious bathrooms, and a huge game room for entertainment. Located in the renowned Katy school district, this home offers over 3000 Sq/ft of living space. You'll love the office room upstairs, nice patio for outdoor gatherings, and convenient access to I-10 freeway. HOA includes a pool, splash pad, and community park with lake walk-around. Washer, dryer, and fridge included, with the oven having a gas cooktop. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity - schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Mahogany cabinets
• Huge game room

Tags

• MAHOGANY CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• HUGE GAME ROOM
• OFFICE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $354k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-733 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (36.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (36.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 494 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($322k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 13515% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,503 (36.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.87%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $435,279
• List price: $353,999
• Delta: -18.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4714 Country Spring Rd	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,884 (-6%)	1mo	$319,991	$111	66
4907 Trailing Clover Ct	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,983 (-3%)	3mo	$289,900	$97	66
18219 Windy Knoll Way	0.25mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,785 (-9%)	6mo	$434,321	$156	63
4963 Valley White Oak Ln	0.14mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,657 (-13%)	6mo	$435,926	$164	59
18215 Windy Knoll Way	0.25mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,767 (-10%)	8mo	$456,215	$165	57
19303 Chislestone Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,984 (-3%)	0mo	$329,500	$110	56
5003 Hastingwood Dr	0.70mi	5/3.5	2,919 (-5%)	0mo	$449,900	$154	55
18335 Longmoor Drive Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,113 (+2%)	4mo	$415,000	$133	52
18223 Windy Knoll Way	0.26mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,620 (-15%)	6mo	$426,033	$163	50
19038 Winding Stream Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,220 (+5%)	7mo	$319,900	$99	49
18514 Windy Knoll Way	0.47mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,672 (-13%)	2mo	$430,000	$161	48
5010 Hastingwood Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,874 (-6%)	6mo	$424,500	$148	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.4% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-86,932
• Equity at exit: $78,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-141,529
• Equity at exit: $77,139

Cash invested: $99,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77084

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 494
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,573 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,856
• Tax from tax record: −$701 /mo · $8,407/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,501

Max offer price $224,503

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,500
• Closing costs: $10,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4818 Twisting Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2516	$2,245	$0.89	20d	1	0.35mi
4206 Grand Sunnyview Ln Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	4029	$3,500	$0.87	43d	1	0.68mi
18622 Dennington Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2281	$1,625	$0.71	43d	1	1.33mi
17706 Windsor Grove Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2248	$2,900	$1.29	43d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $353,999 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $353,999 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $353,999 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $353,999 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $353,999 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $353,999 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $353,999 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $353,999 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    price $353,999 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $355,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $355,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $355,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $355,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $355,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $355,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $2,600
18. 2026-05-05
    price $355,000 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 5 bedroom home in Grand Oaks! Featuring mahogany cabinets, stainless steel appliances, granite counters, and a beautiful backsplash in the kitchen. Enjoy walk-in closets, spacious bathrooms, and a huge game room for entertainment. Located in the renowned Katy school district, this home offers over 3000 Sq/ft of living space. You'll love the office room upstairs, nice patio for outdoor gatherings, and convenient access to I-10 freeway. HOA includes a pool, splash pad, and community park with lake walk-around. Washer, dryer, and fridge included, with the oven having a gas cooktop. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity - schedule your showing today!

19. 2026-03-13
    listed $365,000 Active 686-char remark

    Show marketing remark (686 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 5 bedroom home in Grand Oaks! Featuring mahogany cabinets, stainless steel appliances, granite counters, and a beautiful backsplash in the kitchen. Enjoy walk-in closets, spacious bathrooms, and a huge game room for entertainment. Located in the renowned Katy school district, this home offers over 3000 Sq/ft of living space. You'll love the office room upstairs, nice patio for outdoor gatherings, and convenient access to I-10 freeway. HOA includes a pool, splash pad, and community park with lake walk-around. Washer, dryer, and fridge included, with the oven having a gas cooktop. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity - schedule your showing today!

20. 2017-07-19
    soldstatus
21. 2017-07-14
    soldstatus Sold 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Don't miss your chance to view this charming Houston home in Grand Oaks. Property features a gourmet kitchen with granite-topped counters mahogany cabinetry, breakfast bar & tile diagonal backsplash. The master en-suite is spacious w/ double sinks in the extended vanity & HUGE walk-in closet w/ built-ins. The backyard is large, perfect for hosting events. Ideal for commuters w/ easy access to I-10, Sam Houston Tollway & Westpark Tollway. Call today, this home is drenched in style & comfort.

22. 2017-06-19
    status Pending 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Don't miss your chance to view this charming Houston home in Grand Oaks. Property features a gourmet kitchen with granite-topped counters mahogany cabinetry, breakfast bar & tile diagonal backsplash. The master en-suite is spacious w/ double sinks in the extended vanity & HUGE walk-in closet w/ built-ins. The backyard is large, perfect for hosting events. Ideal for commuters w/ easy access to I-10, Sam Houston Tollway & Westpark Tollway. Call today, this home is drenched in style & comfort.

23. 2017-06-06
    status Option Pending 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Don't miss your chance to view this charming Houston home in Grand Oaks. Property features a gourmet kitchen with granite-topped counters mahogany cabinetry, breakfast bar & tile diagonal backsplash. The master en-suite is spacious w/ double sinks in the extended vanity & HUGE walk-in closet w/ built-ins. The backyard is large, perfect for hosting events. Ideal for commuters w/ easy access to I-10, Sam Houston Tollway & Westpark Tollway. Call today, this home is drenched in style & comfort.

24. 2017-05-31
    price $224,900 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Don't miss your chance to view this charming Houston home in Grand Oaks. Property features a gourmet kitchen with granite-topped counters mahogany cabinetry, breakfast bar & tile diagonal backsplash. The master en-suite is spacious w/ double sinks in the extended vanity & HUGE walk-in closet w/ built-ins. The backyard is large, perfect for hosting events. Ideal for commuters w/ easy access to I-10, Sam Houston Tollway & Westpark Tollway. Call today, this home is drenched in style & comfort.

25. 2017-04-18
    listed $230,000 Active 519-char remark

    Show marketing remark (519 chars)

    Don't miss your chance to view this charming Houston home in Grand Oaks. Property features a gourmet kitchen with granite-topped counters mahogany cabinetry, breakfast bar & tile diagonal backsplash. The master en-suite is spacious w/ double sinks in the extended vanity & HUGE walk-in closet w/ built-ins. The backyard is large, perfect for hosting events. Ideal for commuters w/ easy access to I-10, Sam Houston Tollway & Westpark Tollway. Call today, this home is drenched in style & comfort.

26. 2017-04-13
    historical
27. 2017-03-14
    price $239,900
28. 2016-12-21
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,407 · $701/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,407 · $701/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,829
• − Property taxes: −$8,407
• − Insurance: −$1,770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,470
• − Management: −$2,470
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$10,298
• Taxable loss: −$15,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,625
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 110,217
• Household income: $80,575
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3257.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 22% White 22% Black 16% Asian 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.40%
• Current HPI: 251.8474
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $355,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2017-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-07-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-06-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-05-31 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2017-04-18 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2017-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-03-14 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2016-12-21 Listed $249,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,407 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.