609 Willow Ln

Waterloo, IL 62298

$220,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,516/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$405
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-361/mo
• Annual: $-4,330/yr
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (31.1% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $152k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#87 in IL, #1,409 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities D, health & safety F.
• Waterloo CUSD 5 (town): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #109 of 620 in IL (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waterloo High School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #107 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 895 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 16% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $220k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Waterloo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.