609 Willow Ln · Waterloo, IL 62298

$220,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1960 10,637 sqft lot $191/sqft · 44% above area Est $306k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity Knocks in Waterloo! Welcome to this solid 3-bedroom brick ranch with an attached garage is full of potential and ready for its next chapter. Being sold as-is, this home is perfect for buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. Inside, you’ll find hardwood floors in all three bedrooms, while the living room has already had the carpet removed—giving you a clean slate to design the flooring of your choice. The layout offers a functional flow with great bones, making it an ideal candidate for updates and customization. The full basement adds even more value, featuring 2 bonus rooms, and a huge family room that could easily be transformed into a spaciou

Key facts

• Bonus rooms
• Desirable location
• Huge family room

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• BONUS ROOMS
• HUGE FAMILY ROOM
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade and below-grade finished areas reported (each listed as 1,152; total living area reported as 2,304)
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage indicated; Seller may consider concessions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two-car garage (approx. 23 x 22)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other); Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level (single story); Private ownership; Property listed in fixer condition
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (approx. 11 x 8)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Additional half bathroom in the lower level/basement
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with concrete and a bathroom; 10 total rooms including living, family and bonus rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-361 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Waterloo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#87 in IL, #1,409 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities D, health & safety F.
• Waterloo CUSD 5 (town): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #109 of 620 in IL (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waterloo High School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #107 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 895 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 16% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $220k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,649 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.03%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,489
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -28.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 S Moore St	0.34mi	2/— (-1)	1,134 (-2%)	2mo	$49,000	$43	75
237 N Moore St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,204 (+4%)	0mo	$209,900	$174	68
412 Park St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,254 (+9%)	2mo	$249,900	$199	61
335 W 4th St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-8%)	1mo	$142,500	$134	58
421 S Church St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,110 (-4%)	6mo	$245,000	$221	57
902 Stiening St	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,256 (+9%)	8mo	$215,000	$171	51
627 Mark Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+14%)	1mo	$229,900	$174	48
601 Stiening St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (-10%)	9mo	$189,900	$183	46
108 Front St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,158 (+0%)	9mo	$175,000	$151	45
406 Grand Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,065 (-8%)	8mo	$170,000	$160	43
409 Hartmann Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+14%)	7mo	$299,900	$228	40
207 Hoener Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-15%)	2mo	$185,000	$189	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-58,585
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-80,419
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62298

• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,516 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,762/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $156,256

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-236	-5% $-299	+0% $-361	+5% $-423	+10% $-485
Rent	-10% $-481	-5% $-421	+0% $-361	+5% $-301	+10% $-241
Rate	-1.0pp $-250	-0.5pp $-305	base $-361	+0.5pp $-418	+1.0pp $-476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Westview Pl Unit D Waterloo, IL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,375	$1.15	23d	1	0.27mi
405 N Moore St Waterloo, IL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,895	$1.34	17d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $220,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $220,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-02
    listed $230,000 Active 1065-char remark
18. 2022-07-01
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,762 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,378 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: +$616/yr (+$51/mo · 16.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,762
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$8,299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,992
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterloo CUSD 5
• NCES district ID: 1741070
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,468
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4317
• State rank: #109 of 620 in IL

Livability — Waterloo

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #87
• US rank: #1409

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waterloo, IL
• Population (ZIP): 17,907

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,776 people
• By 2030: 36,437 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 36,967 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 36,310 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 34,133 · -4.6%
• By 2100: 28,857 · -19.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.3) · D 31.0% · R 67.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.6pp toward R · 2008: -10.7pp · 2024: -36.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.3 2020: R+35.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.48%
• Current HPI: 163.6536
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+109.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $220,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listed $230,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,762 · +20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.