135 Ponderosa #23

Colfax, CA 95731

$139,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$945
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $109/mo
• Annual: $1,307/yr
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.83%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#216 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Hills Elementary (367 students, 29% FRL); Weimar Hills (398 students, 29% FRL); Colfax High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 666 students, 23% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.6% in Colfax — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.