135 Ponderosa #23 · Colfax, CA 95731

$139,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition Est $149k · 6% under $945/mo HOA · 37% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away at the end of the park for added privacy, this beautifully updated mobile home in Lower Colfax offers comfort, charm, and convenience just minutes from I-80. Inside, you'll find an inviting open floor plan featuring tall ceilings, new luxury vinyl plank flooring, recessed lighting, fresh interior paint, and new baseboards throughout. Stay comfortable year-round with four mini-split systems thoughtfully placed to keep the entire home cool and comfortable. The bright and functional layout creates an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen spaces perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Outside, enjoy charming curb appeal with low-maintenance landscaping, two storage

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Security cameras
• Mini split systems

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MINI SPLIT SYSTEMS
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• STORAGE SHEDS
• SECURITY CAMERAS
• SECLUDED LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not a land-lease property
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Monthly association fee of $945; Association enforces pet restrictions; Association fee covers other community items

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Internet available; Gas plumbed
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Built in 2022
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Built by Champion Home Builders Inc.
• Exterior features: Private, secluded backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Gas cooktop; Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with tile and tub/shower over tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling; Ceiling fans; Other cooling features
• Interior features: Porch with steps and railings; Great room living area; Pantry cabinet; Synthetic countertops; Kitchen/Family combo and a formal dining area; Pet-friendly community with size restrictions
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside; 220V outlet in laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.5% in Colfax — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#216 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Hills Elementary (367 students, 29% FRL); Weimar Hills (398 students, 29% FRL); Colfax High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 666 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $148,608
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Ponderosa Way #20	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	11mo	$144,950	$129	86
135 Ponderosa Way #14	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+7%)	2mo	$135,000	$110	84
135 Ponderosa Way #8	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,051 (-9%)	10mo	$138,000	$131	77
135 Ponderosa Way #7	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-13%)	2mo	$53,000	$53	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $24,300
• Equity at exit: $62,500

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $77,657
• Equity at exit: $96,321

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95731

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$945
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,412

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $157	+0% $109	+5% $61	+10% $13
Rent	-10% $-93	-5% $8	+0% $109	+5% $210	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $179	-0.5pp $144	base $109	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
987 Timber Hills Rd Colfax, CA	3.0	1.0	1124	$2,550	$2.27	0d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $945 · $11,340/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 41 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − HOA: −$11,340
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$59
• After-tax cash flow: $1,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully updated mobile home in Lower Colfax offers a good condition with fresh paint, new flooring, and modern appliances. It's move-in ready with low-maintenance landscaping and four mini-split systems for year-round comfort.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Placer Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,119
• Composite: 49.04/100
• National rank: #2060
• State rank: #98 of 517 in CA

Livability — Colfax

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #6827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

No demographic data for this ZIP.

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B