192 Forest Dr

Spout Springs, NC 28326

$249,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,994 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,931/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $70/mo
• Annual: $840/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($840/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnsonville Elementary (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 475 students, 99% FRL); Highland Middle (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 875 students, 64% FRL); Western Harnett High (math 57% / reading 58%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,386 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 51% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Spout Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.