192 Forest Dr · Spout Springs, NC 28326

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,994 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1997 0.55 ac lot Est $255k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Closing attorney holds earnest money.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Spacious kitchen
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• DOUBLE INSULATED CEILING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the SHERWOOD FOREST subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank or septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced yard with privacy; In-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave; Storage; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($840/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.2% in Spout Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnsonville Elementary (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 475 students, 99% FRL); Highland Middle (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 875 students, 64% FRL); Western Harnett High (math 57% / reading 58%, grade C, #245 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,386 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 51% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,143 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,232
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
518 Ridge View Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,755 (-12%)	11mo	$225,000	$128	62
619 Ridge View Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-11%)	23mo	$228,000	$128	58
90 Forest Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,703 (-15%)	19mo	$172,500	$101	55
280 Ridge View Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,272 (+14%)	19mo	$262,000	$115	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-36,123
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-26,659
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28326

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,843

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $140	+0% $70	+5% $-1	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-6	+0% $70	+5% $146	+10% $223
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $133	base $70	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $249,000 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $249,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-05-12
   listed $249,000 Active
10. 2026-03-25
    status Active
11. 2026-02-27
    status Pending
12. 2026-01-29
    price $250,000
13. 2026-01-23
    status Active
14. 2026-01-21
    status Pending
15. 2025-10-25
    listed $255,000 Active
16. 2023-02-13
    soldstatus $184,700 Closed 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Closing attorney holds earnest money.

17. 2023-02-13
    soldstatus $184,700 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Closing attorney holds earnest money.

18. 2023-02-13
    soldstatus $184,700 Closed

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Closing attorney holds earnest money.

19. 2023-02-13
    soldstatus $185,000

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Closing attorney holds earnest money.

20. 2023-01-12
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Closing attorney holds earnest money.

21. 2023-01-12
    status Pending 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Closing attorney holds earnest money.

22. 2023-01-07
    listed $184,700 Active 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Closing attorney holds earnest money.

23. 2023-01-07
    listed $184,700 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Closing attorney holds earnest money.

24. 2023-01-07
    listed $184,700 Active

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Closing attorney holds earnest money.

25. 2013-06-13
    soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,486/yr (+$124/mo · 267.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$846
• After-tax cash flow: $1,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harnett County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702010
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,400
• Composite: 29.88/100
• National rank: #6397
• State rank: #130 of 178 in NC

Livability — Spout Springs

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harnett County · 125,715 people
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 26,068
• Household income: $75,431
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 456.0

Population outlook (Harnett County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,758 people
• By 2030: 166,581 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 192,741 · +25.4%
• By 2050: 218,332 · +42.0%
• By 2075: 275,422 · +79.1%
• By 2100: 313,511 · +103.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Harnett

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.1) · D 36.9% · R 62.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.7pp · 2024: -25.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.1 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+16.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.96%
• Current HPI: 226.8295
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+189.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $249,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $250,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-23 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-01-21 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $255,000 LPRMLS
• 2023-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2023-02-13 Sold (MLS) $184,700 LPRMLS
• 2023-02-13 Sold (MLS) $184,700 AMLSNC
• 2023-02-13 Sold (MLS) $184,700 TMLS
• 2023-01-12 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2023-01-12 Pending — TMLS
• 2023-01-07 Listed $184,700 LPRMLS
• 2023-01-07 Listed $184,700 AMLSNC
• 2023-01-07 Listed $184,700 TMLS
• 2013-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $556 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.