Palm Plan

Flagler Estates, FL 32145

$269,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 570 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,699/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,436
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-549/mo
• Annual: $-6,592/yr
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.60%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $76,649

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-549 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (28.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (37.1% below list).
• It's been on market 570 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (37.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 570 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.