620 5th St

Hawley, TX 79525

$209,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,544 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,358/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$303
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $-326/mo
• Annual: $-3,911/yr
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.68%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-326 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (35.0% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#459 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Hawley ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #642 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hawley El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 406 students, 55% FRL); Hawley Middle (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 200 students, 52% FRL); Hawley H S (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #959 of 1,632 statewide, top 59%, 213 students, 49% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.3% in Hawley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.