1804 Philadelphia Rd

Urbana, AR 71730

$125,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,060/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax + insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-388/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $35,252

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-388/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (15.8% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• El Dorado School District (town): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #134 of 238 in AR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.