1804 Philadelphia Rd · Urbana, AR 71730

$125,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

10 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath farmhouse sits on 10.28 picturesque acres, offering a peaceful country setting surrounded by mature trees that provide shade and natural beauty. The home features a durable metal roof, a cozy, comfortable layout perfect for everyday living. Multiple storage buildings on the property offer ample space for equipment, hobbies, or extra storage. Whether you’re looking for room to roam, garden, or simple enjoy the quiet of rural life, this property offers the perfect blend of charm, space, and functionality. This property is sold “as is, where is”, seller will not make repairs. No property disclosure will be provided. Buyer is responsible for having utilities turned on for inspections on the property. Square footage, lot size, and acreage is taken from courthouse records.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• 10.28 acres
• 10.28 acre lot

Tags

• 10.28 ACRES
• METAL ROOF
• MULTIPLE STORAGE BUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-388/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $106k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• El Dorado School District (town): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #134 of 238 in AR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 20 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,046 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-22,443
• Equity at exit: $18,772

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-22,127
• Equity at exit: $10,886

Cash invested: $35,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71730

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,060 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$157 /mo · $1,888/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,101

Max offer price $121,226

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,475
• Closing costs: $3,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,900 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,900 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,900 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,900 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,900 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,900 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    price $125,900 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath farmhouse sits on 10.28 picturesque acres, offering a peaceful country setting surrounded by mature trees that provide shade and natural beauty. The home features a durable metal roof, a cozy, comfortable layout perfect for everyday living. Multiple storage buildings on the property offer ample space for equipment, hobbies, or extra storage. Whether you’re looking for room to roam, garden, or simple enjoy the quiet of rural life, this property offers the perfect blend of charm, space, and functionality. This property is sold “as is, where is”, seller will not make repairs. No property disclosure will be provided. Buyer is responsible for having utilities turned on for inspections on the property. Square footage, lot size, and acreage is taken from courthouse records.

18. 2026-01-16
    listed $139,900 New Listing 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath farmhouse sits on 10.28 picturesque acres, offering a peaceful country setting surrounded by mature trees that provide shade and natural beauty. The home features a durable metal roof, a cozy, comfortable layout perfect for everyday living. Multiple storage buildings on the property offer ample space for equipment, hobbies, or extra storage. Whether you’re looking for room to roam, garden, or simple enjoy the quiet of rural life, this property offers the perfect blend of charm, space, and functionality. This property is sold “as is, where is”, seller will not make repairs. No property disclosure will be provided. Buyer is responsible for having utilities turned on for inspections on the property. Square footage, lot size, and acreage is taken from courthouse records.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 43% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,052
• − Property taxes: −$1,888
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,018
• − Management: −$1,018
• − Depreciation: −$3,663
• Taxable loss: −$2,543
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$610
• After-tax cash flow: $223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Dorado School District
• NCES district ID: 0505680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,122
• Composite: 27.36/100
• National rank: #6979
• State rank: #134 of 238 in AR

Livability — Urbana

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,187

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,422 people
• By 2030: 35,808 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 32,605 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 29,688 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 23,691 · -36.7%
• By 2100: 17,950 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.36%
• Current HPI: 155.8786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $125,900 CARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $139,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+27.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $236 · +1548.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.