641 Decatur Head Dr

Anacortes, WA 98221

$499,999F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 764 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,618/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$382
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-936/mo
• Annual: $-11,233/yr
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.02%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $140,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-936 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (47.6% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($455k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $262k (47.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#85 in WA, #1,627 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lopez School District (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #180 of 291 in WA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Decatur Elementary (3 students, 0% FRL); Lopez Middle High School (134 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 99 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Juan County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 1.6% in Anacortes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.