1238 Cumberland Head Road Rd

Cumberland Head, NY 12901

$139,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 279 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,362/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$274
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $73/mo
• Annual: $879/yr
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.26%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($879/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (2.0% below list).
• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#473 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Beekmantown Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #360 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 192 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clinton County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $139k implies a 379% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.