1238 Cumberland Head Road Rd · Cumberland Head, NY 12901

$139,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1962 1.31 ac lot $193/sqft · 32% below area Est $227k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-In Ready Ranch on Cumberland Head! This charming 3-bedroom ranch sits on a spacious 1.31-acre level lot in a desirable Plattsburgh location. Recently renovated and ready for new owners, the home features all new flooring, a 3-year-old roof, and updates that make it both modern and efficient. Enjoy peace of mind with an affordable, easy-to-heat layout and the convenience of a two-car garage. The property offers plenty of room to garden, play, or simply relax on your private lot. With its great location on Cumberland Head, move-in readiness, and affordable price, this home is a perfect fit for buyers seeking comfort, value, and convenience.

Key facts

• Private lot
• All new flooring
• Spacious level lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LEVEL LOT
• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• ALL NEW FLOORING
• 3 YEAR OLD ROOF
• PRIVATE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($879/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#473 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Beekmantown Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #360 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 192 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $139k implies a 379% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.26%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,000
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -38.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-17,813
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,315
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12901

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,362 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,594/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,270

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 263 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 262 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 261 DOM
15. 2025-10-30
    price $139,000 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Move-In Ready Ranch on Cumberland Head! This charming 3-bedroom ranch sits on a spacious 1.31-acre level lot in a desirable Plattsburgh location. Recently renovated and ready for new owners, the home features all new flooring, a 3-year-old roof, and updates that make it both modern and efficient. Enjoy peace of mind with an affordable, easy-to-heat layout and the convenience of a two-car garage. The property offers plenty of room to garden, play, or simply relax on your private lot. With its great location on Cumberland Head, move-in readiness, and affordable price, this home is a perfect fit for buyers seeking comfort, value, and convenience.

16. 2025-10-30
    price $149,000 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Move-In Ready Ranch on Cumberland Head! This charming 3-bedroom ranch sits on a spacious 1.31-acre level lot in a desirable Plattsburgh location. Recently renovated and ready for new owners, the home features all new flooring, a 3-year-old roof, and updates that make it both modern and efficient. Enjoy peace of mind with an affordable, easy-to-heat layout and the convenience of a two-car garage. The property offers plenty of room to garden, play, or simply relax on your private lot. With its great location on Cumberland Head, move-in readiness, and affordable price, this home is a perfect fit for buyers seeking comfort, value, and convenience.

17. 2025-10-01
    price $159,000 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Move-In Ready Ranch on Cumberland Head! This charming 3-bedroom ranch sits on a spacious 1.31-acre level lot in a desirable Plattsburgh location. Recently renovated and ready for new owners, the home features all new flooring, a 3-year-old roof, and updates that make it both modern and efficient. Enjoy peace of mind with an affordable, easy-to-heat layout and the convenience of a two-car garage. The property offers plenty of room to garden, play, or simply relax on your private lot. With its great location on Cumberland Head, move-in readiness, and affordable price, this home is a perfect fit for buyers seeking comfort, value, and convenience.

18. 2025-09-12
    listed $164,900 Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Move-In Ready Ranch on Cumberland Head! This charming 3-bedroom ranch sits on a spacious 1.31-acre level lot in a desirable Plattsburgh location. Recently renovated and ready for new owners, the home features all new flooring, a 3-year-old roof, and updates that make it both modern and efficient. Enjoy peace of mind with an affordable, easy-to-heat layout and the convenience of a two-car garage. The property offers plenty of room to garden, play, or simply relax on your private lot. With its great location on Cumberland Head, move-in readiness, and affordable price, this home is a perfect fit for buyers seeking comfort, value, and convenience.

19. 2022-12-07
    price $124,900
20. 2017-02-16
    soldstatus $29,000
21. 2017-02-14
    soldstatus $29,000
22. 2016-07-19
    listed $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,594 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,594 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,594
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,308
• − Management: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$1,386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$333
• After-tax cash flow: $1,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beekmantown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604290
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $53,577
• Composite: 43.91/100
• National rank: #2914
• State rank: #360 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cumberland Head

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #473
• US rank: #8361

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland Head, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,012

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,791 people
• By 2030: 76,848 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 71,579 · -9.2%
• By 2050: 66,471 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 57,361 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 47,232 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.9% · R 51.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+5.2 2016: D+0.9 2012: D+25.6 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.55%
• Current HPI: 252.8692
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+178.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $139,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $149,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $159,000 ACVMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $164,900 ACVMLS
• 2022-12-07 Price Changed $124,900 ACVMLS
• 2017-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-14 Sold (MLS) $29,000 ACVMLS
• 2016-07-19 Listed $50,000 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,594 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.