40 Flathead Ln

Green Mountain Falls, CO 80863

$180,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 341 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,397/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $55/mo
• Annual: $656/yr
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($656/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#181 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Woodland Park School District No. Re-2 (town): math 28% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #29 of 86 in CO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 245 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 148 units permitted in Teller County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Teller County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $180k implies a 1700% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.