40 Flathead Ln · Green Mountain Falls, CO 80863

$180,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 341 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1985 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Please contact listing agent for showing. Ben Boyd 8167691304

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 49 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 1 acre lot; Outbuilding of other type
• Financial info: Financing options may include cash, owner carry, or USDA
• HOA & community: No HOA; No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Cistern water; Generator
• Home design: Single-family home; Existing home
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Wood siding; Composite shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Wood deck patio; Mountain view; Hiking trail access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range oven (gas/electric)
• Bedrooms: Main floor bedroom
• Flooring: Tile; Wood laminate
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Active solar heating; Propane heating; No air conditioning
• Interior features: Tile and wood laminate floors; Wood laminate entry; Stove fireplace; Active solar heating and propane backup; No cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($656/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#181 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Woodland Park School District No. Re-2 (town): math 28% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #29 of 86 in CO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 245 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 148 units permitted in Teller County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Teller County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $180k implies a 1700% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,708 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,880
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,820
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80863

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $361/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,328

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $180,000 Active
16. 2025-09-24
    price $200,000
17. 2025-08-27
    price $210,000
18. 2025-08-19
    price $215,000
19. 2025-07-31
    price $240,000
20. 1994-10-21
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $361 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$629/yr (+$52/mo · 174.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 2 d/yr ≥79°F today · 4 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$361
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,341
• − Management: −$1,341
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,498
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$599
• After-tax cash flow: $1,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodland Park School District No. Re-2
• NCES district ID: 0807380
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,920
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #5385
• State rank: #29 of 86 in CO

Livability — Green Mountain Falls

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #14786

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Teller County · 12,329 people
• Metro: Colorado Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 12,329
• Household income: $104,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 418.0

Population outlook (Teller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,404 people
• By 2030: 21,527 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 19,356 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 17,462 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 14,658 · -34.6%
• By 2100: 11,982 · -46.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Teller

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.5) · D 31.0% · R 66.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.3pp toward R · 2008: -28.1pp · 2024: -35.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.5 2020: R+35.2 2016: R+42.5 2012: R+33.1 2008: R+28.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.47%
• Current HPI: 304.4625
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Metro: Colorado Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+1700.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $180,000 elevateMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $200,000 elevateMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $210,000 elevateMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $215,000 elevateMLS
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $240,000 elevateMLS
• 1994-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2020): $361 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.