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Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$2,649,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,677 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $19,831/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,892
• Tax + insurance: −$4,415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,165
• Net cashflow: $-2,640/mo
• Annual: $-31,680/yr
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $741,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $2.65M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.27M (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.98M (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.61M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.98M (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $225k of equity ($18k loan paydown + $207k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Remsenburg-Speonk Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 122 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 10% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $1.45M; list at $2.65M implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$360k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 6.4% in Remsenburg-Speonk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.