5949 James Rd

Mableton, GA 30168

$445,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,774 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,930/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$595
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$825
• Net cashflow: $176/mo
• Annual: $2,113/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $393k (11.7% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $393k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#94 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-.
• Cobb County (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #25 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mableton Elementary School (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 898 students, 81% FRL); Garrett Middle School (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #375 of 470 statewide, top 80%, 906 students, 85% FRL); Pebblebrook High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #171 of 424 statewide, top 41%, 2,511 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cobb County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 131 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,625 units permitted in Cobb County in 2024 (389 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cobb County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $445k implies a 972% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Mableton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,930/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 993% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.