5949 James Rd · Mableton, GA 30168

$445,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,774 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1987 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL RANCH HOME! KITCHEN BOASTS WITH STAINED CABINETS! LOTS OF CABINET SPACE! SPACIOUS BEDROOMS! GREAT OPPORTUNITY! DON'T MISS OUT!

Key facts

• Oversized kitchen
• Large private lot
• New appliances

Tags

• LARGE PRIVATE LOT
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE PRIVATE DECK
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 2 garage spaces and additional driveway parking; Open parking available; Kitchen-level entry
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric service with 110V and 220V; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: One and one-half story; Frame construction; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other exterior details

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar and breakfast room; Stained cabinets with laminate counters; Open view to family room; Dishwasher; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Two upper-level bedrooms; Oversized double master with master on main
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Master bath with separate his and hers vanities and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Recessed lighting; Walk-in closets; Double pane windows; One basement fireplace (in finished partial daylight basement)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room with sink; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $393k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $393k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.0% in Mableton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#94 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute D-.
• Cobb County (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #25 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mableton Elementary School (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 898 students, 81% FRL); Garrett Middle School (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #375 of 470 statewide, top 80%, 906 students, 85% FRL); Pebblebrook High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #171 of 424 statewide, top 41%, 2,511 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 39% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cobb County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 131 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,625 units permitted in Cobb County in 2024 (389 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,930/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 993% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cobb County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $445k implies a 972% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $392,960 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-69,551
• Equity at exit: $66,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-80,096
• Equity at exit: $38,475

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30168

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,930 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,911/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$825
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,707

Max offer price $445,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $302	+0% $176	+5% $50	+10% $-76
Rent	-10% $-134	-5% $21	+0% $176	+5% $331	+10% $487
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $289	base $176	+0.5pp $61	+1.0pp $-57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1068 S Gordon Rd Austell, GA	4.0	3.0	3740	$2,500	$0.67	45d	1	1.33mi
5161 Madison Green Dr SW Mableton, GA	4.0	3.5	3054	$8,450	$2.77	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $445,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $445,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,911 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,911 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$4,911
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,772
• − Management: −$3,772
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$5,398
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,296
• After-tax cash flow: $3,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cobb County
• NCES district ID: 1301290
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $68,845
• Composite: 37.93/100
• National rank: #4308
• State rank: #25 of 174 in GA

Livability — Mableton

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #94
• US rank: #7534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mableton, GA
• County: Cobb County · 777,758 people
• City population: 41,829
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 26,612
• Household income: $64,059
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 993.0

Population outlook (Cobb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 868,385 people
• By 2030: 929,614 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 1,047,533 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 1,155,537 · +33.1%
• By 2075: 1,405,030 · +61.8%
• By 2100: 1,555,058 · +79.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% Hispanic / Latino 21% White 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cobb

• 2024 margin: D (+14.9) · D 56.9% · R 42.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +24.3pp toward D · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: 14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.9 2020: D+14.3 2016: D+2.1 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.55%
• Current HPI: 246.7995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+256.0% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $445,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-13 Rental Removed $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-07 Listed for Rent $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-06 Rental Removed $2,500 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-04-05 Listed for Rent $2,500 SHOWMOJO
• 2023-12-27 Rental Removed $2,300 FMLS
• 2023-11-27 Price Changed $2,300 FMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed for Rent $2,400 FMLS
• 2023-11-05 Rental Removed $2,400 FMLS
• 2023-11-01 Price Changed $2,400 FMLS
• 2023-09-15 Listed for Rent $2,500 FMLS
• 2014-10-30 Price Changed $41,500 GAMLS
• 2012-07-20 Sold (MLS) $41,500 GAMLS
• 2012-07-18 Price Changed $41,500 FMLS
• 2012-07-18 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2012-07-17 Sold (MLS) $41,500 FMLS
• 2012-07-17 Price Changed $49,900 FMLS
• 2012-06-20 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2012-06-20 Pending — FMLS
• 2012-06-20 Price Changed $49,900 GAMLS
• 2012-06-12 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2012-06-12 Relisted — FMLS
• 2012-06-07 Pending — FMLS
• 2012-06-07 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2012-05-23 Price Changed $49,900 FMLS
• 2012-05-23 Price Changed $49,900 GAMLS
• 2012-05-01 Price Changed $66,900 FMLS
• 2012-05-01 Price Changed $66,900 GAMLS
• 2012-04-11 Price Changed $74,900 FMLS
• 2012-04-11 Price Changed $74,900 GAMLS
• 2012-03-20 Listed $79,800 FMLS
• 2012-03-20 Listed $79,800 GAMLS
• 1991-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,911 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.