3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,496 sqft ·
Built 2001
· Condo
· Pending
· 127 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,674/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,127
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$352
Net cashflow
$-62/mo
Annual
$-747/yr
Cap rate
5.95%
Cash-on-cash
-1.24%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$60,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $215k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-747/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (5.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (22.1% below list).
It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $167k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#3 in AR, #871 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-.
Fayetteville School District (urban): math 50% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 238 in AR (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 310 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $122k; list at $215k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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