19 Vine Street St

Keeseville, NY 12944

$275,000B

None bd · None ba · 3,572 sqft · Built 1948 · MultiFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,727/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,413
• Net cashflow: $3,439/mo
• Annual: $41,267/yr
• Cap rate: 21.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.59%
• DSCR: 3.38
• 1% rule: 2.45%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($41k/yr) — positive. Per door: $860/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $275k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#673 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keeseville Primary School (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,519 of 2,108 statewide, top 74%, 413 students, 0% FRL); Ausable Valley Middle School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 193 students, 54% FRL); Ausable Valley High School (math 92% / reading 75%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 351 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 35% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $275k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 5.1% in Keeseville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.