19 Vine Street St · Keeseville, NY 12944

$275,000

None bd · None ba · 3,572 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1948 8,712 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Well maintained quadplex with great cash flow. Many upgrades have been made and rental history is solid. Currently there are two leases and the other two units will be advertised shortly after unit improvements. Owners are staying in unit#2.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1948

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with 3 open parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 100 amp electric service; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Quadruplex residential income property; Two stories
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Fuel tank(s) on site
• Exterior features: Front porch; Side porch; No fencing

Interior

• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Smoke detectors installed
• Laundry & utility: No in-unit laundry listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($41k/yr) — positive. Per door: $860/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $275k).
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 5.8% in Keeseville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#673 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $275k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $275,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.59%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $174,552
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $434,380
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12944

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,727 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,824/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,413
• Net cashflow: $3,439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,374

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,595	-5% $3,517	+0% $3,439	+5% $3,361	+10% $3,283
Rent	-10% $2,908	-5% $3,173	+0% $3,439	+5% $3,705	+10% $3,970
Rate	-1.0pp $3,577	-0.5pp $3,509	base $3,439	+0.5pp $3,368	+1.0pp $3,295

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$6,728
Total (4 units)			$6,727

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $275,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-05-20
   listed $275,000 Active
6. 2021-02-19
   soldstatus $170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,824 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,236 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: +$412/yr (+$34/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $80,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,824
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,458
• − Management: −$6,458
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $39,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,409
• After-tax cash flow: $31,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ausable Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616170
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,989
• Composite: 37.43/100
• National rank: #4417
• State rank: #474 of 590 in NY

Livability — Keeseville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #12604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keeseville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,043

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 20% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.79%
• Current HPI: 220.0385
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+61.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $275,000 ACVMLS
• 2021-02-19 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,824 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.