1913 Blue Ridge Dr

Flower Mound, TX 75028

$799,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,784 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Active · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,932/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax + insurance: −$1,265
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,456
• Net cashflow: $-0/mo
• Annual: $-5/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $223,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $800k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($-5/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $800k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $693k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($776k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $693k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#317 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lewisville ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #109 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bluebonnet El (math 72% / reading 71%, grade A-, #117 of 4,322 statewide, top 3%, 632 students, 10% FRL); Shadow Ridge Middle (math 64% / reading 72%, grade A-, #73 of 1,662 statewide, top 5%, 649 students, 11% FRL); Flower Mound H S (math 82% / reading 86%, grade A, #19 of 1,632 statewide, top 1%, 3,542 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools average 9% FRL vs 26% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 74% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lewisville ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.5% in Flower Mound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,932/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($149k/yr) (locally 779% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.