151 Hillcrest Ave

Manhasset, NY 11030

$1,599,000D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,844 sqft · Built 1926 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,385
• Tax + insurance: −$1,930
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,344
• Net cashflow: $-5,260/mo
• Annual: $-63,115/yr
• Cap rate: 2.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.10%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $447,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-63k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $670k (58.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $640k (60.0% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.55M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $640k (60.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $97k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $86k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#78 in NY, #1,199 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Manhasset Union Free School District (suburban): math 86% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #8 of 590 in NY (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Manhasset Middle School (math 84% / reading 79%, grade A+, #22 of 729 statewide, top 3%, 521 students, 6% FRL); Manhasset Secondary School (math 100% / reading 87%, grade A+, #141 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 962 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1000k; list at $1.60M implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$156k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.