151 Hillcrest Ave · Manhasset, NY 11030

$1,599,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,844 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1926 5,000 sqft lot $867/sqft · 18% below area Est $1943k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +8.3/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Cash flow +2.9/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the heart of Manhasset, this charming 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath side hall Colonial offers a warm and inviting layout filled with natural light. The main level features a gracious living room with fireplace that flows seamlessly into the dining room with outdoor access. The white kitchen was renovated five years ago. A home office completes the main floor. The second floor provides 3 well-proportioned bedrooms and a recently renovated full bath. The third floor has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. A full basement with 1/2 bath and laundry room. Hardwood floors throughout and plentiful windows create a bright airy atmosphere. Ideally located on the quiet side of the street near the train station, shops and restaurants, this home offers both charm and convenience with a detached 2-car garage, a nice flat backyard. Munsey Park Elementary School, Manhasset Middle & High School.

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1926

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-63k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $670k (58.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $640k (60.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $640k (60.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#78 in NY, #1,199 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Manhasset Union Free School District (suburban): math 86% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #8 of 590 in NY (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Manhasset Middle School (math 84% / reading 79%, grade A+, #22 of 729 statewide, top 3%, 521 students, 6% FRL); Manhasset Secondary School (math 100% / reading 87%, grade A+, #141 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 962 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $97k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $86k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$156k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.55M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1000k; list at $1.60M implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $640,000 (60.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.10%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 20.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,943,217
• List price: $1,599,000
• Delta: -17.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Park Ave	0.05mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-14%)	7mo	$1,500,000	$945	63
131 Park Ave	0.06mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,695 (-8%)	15mo	$1,506,000	$888	62
17 Pinewood Rd	0.55mi	4/3.5 (-1)	1,830 (-1%)	5mo	$2,000,000	$1,093	58
54 Summit Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,755 (-5%)	2mo	$1,675,000	$954	56
96 Quaker Ridge Rd	0.62mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,748 (-5%)	1mo	$1,950,000	$1,116	55
55 Parkwoods Rd	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,098 (+14%)	12mo	$2,060,000	$982	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $68,219
• Equity at exit: $943,380

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $479,839
• Equity at exit: $1,659,807

Cash invested: $447,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11030

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 20.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,385
• Tax from tax record: −$1,264 /mo · $15,168/yr
• Insurance: −$666
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,344
• Net cashflow: $-5,260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,058

Max offer price $669,874

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,354	-5% $-4,807	+0% $-5,260	+5% $-5,712	+10% $-6,165
Rent	-10% $-5,765	-5% $-5,512	+0% $-5,260	+5% $-5,007	+10% $-4,754
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,454	-0.5pp $-4,853	base $-5,260	+0.5pp $-5,674	+1.0pp $-6,095

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $399,750
• Closing costs: $47,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
72 Highland Ter Manhasset, NY	4.0	2.0	2216	$6,400	$2.89	45d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $1,599,000 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   Located in the heart of Manhasset, this charming 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath side hall Colonial offers a warm and inviting layout filled with natural light. The main level features a gracious living room with fireplace that flows seamlessly into the dining room with outdoor access. The white kitchen was renovated five years ago. A home office completes the main floor. The second floor provides 3 well-proportioned bedrooms and a recently renovated full bath. The third floor has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. A full basement with 1/2 bath and laundry room. Hardwood floors throughout and plentiful windows create a bright airy atmosphere. Ideally located on the quiet side of the street near the train station, shops and restaurants, this home offers both charm and convenience with a detached 2-car garage, a nice flat backyard. Munsey Park Elementary School, Manhasset Middle & High School.

2. 2026-04-21
   price $1,688,000 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   Located in the heart of Manhasset, this charming 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath side hall Colonial offers a warm and inviting layout filled with natural light. The main level features a gracious living room with fireplace that flows seamlessly into the dining room with outdoor access. The white kitchen was renovated five years ago. A home office completes the main floor. The second floor provides 3 well-proportioned bedrooms and a recently renovated full bath. The third floor has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. A full basement with 1/2 bath and laundry room. Hardwood floors throughout and plentiful windows create a bright airy atmosphere. Ideally located on the quiet side of the street near the train station, shops and restaurants, this home offers both charm and convenience with a detached 2-car garage, a nice flat backyard. Munsey Park Elementary School, Manhasset Middle & High School.

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $1,749,000 Active 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   Located in the heart of Manhasset, this charming 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath side hall Colonial offers a warm and inviting layout filled with natural light. The main level features a gracious living room with fireplace that flows seamlessly into the dining room with outdoor access. The white kitchen was renovated five years ago. A home office completes the main floor. The second floor provides 3 well-proportioned bedrooms and a recently renovated full bath. The third floor has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. A full basement with 1/2 bath and laundry room. Hardwood floors throughout and plentiful windows create a bright airy atmosphere. Ideally located on the quiet side of the street near the train station, shops and restaurants, this home offers both charm and convenience with a detached 2-car garage, a nice flat backyard. Munsey Park Elementary School, Manhasset Middle & High School.

4. 2026-04-07
   historical $1,749,000 891-char remark

   Show marketing remark (891 chars)

   Located in the heart of Manhasset, this charming 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath side hall Colonial offers a warm and inviting layout filled with natural light. The main level features a gracious living room with fireplace that flows seamlessly into the dining room with outdoor access. The white kitchen was renovated five years ago. A home office completes the main floor. The second floor provides 3 well-proportioned bedrooms and a recently renovated full bath. The third floor has 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. A full basement with 1/2 bath and laundry room. Hardwood floors throughout and plentiful windows create a bright airy atmosphere. Ideally located on the quiet side of the street near the train station, shops and restaurants, this home offers both charm and convenience with a detached 2-car garage, a nice flat backyard. Munsey Park Elementary School, Manhasset Middle & High School.

5. 2024-09-11
   historical $5,900
6. 2024-08-31
   price $5,900
7. 2024-08-13
   listed $6,200
8. 2021-05-18
   soldstatus $999,500
9. 1973-10-01
   soldstatus $46,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,168 · $1,264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,096 · $1,758/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,928/yr (+$494/mo · 39.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $76,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,569
• − Property taxes: −$15,168
• − Insurance: −$7,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,144
• − Management: −$6,144
• − Depreciation: −$46,516
• Taxable loss: −$94,736
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22,737
• After-tax cash flow: $-40,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manhasset Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618270
• Math proficiency: 86% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $166,795
• Composite: 82.99/100
• National rank: #17
• State rank: #8 of 590 in NY

Livability — Manhasset

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #1199

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manhasset, NY
• City population: 17,703
• Population (ZIP): 17,703

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Chinese 9% Other Indo-European 8% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Current HPI: 288.8947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3338.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $1,599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $1,688,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $1,749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $1,749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-11 Rental Removed $5,900 ONEKEY
• 2024-08-31 Price Changed $5,900 ONEKEY
• 2024-08-13 Listed for Rent $6,200 ONEKEY
• 2021-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $999,500 Public Records
• 1973-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $15,168 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.