Lewiston Plan

Bismarck, ND 58503

$230,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 284 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,904/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,011
• Tax + insurance: −$639
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-1,146/mo
• Annual: $-13,756/yr
• Cap rate: 2.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.81%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $107,386

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $230k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (17.2% below list).
• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C, #52 of 236 statewide, top 22%, 496 students, 5% FRL); Horizon Middle School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D+, #13 of 35 statewide, top 35%, 1,044 students, 14% FRL); Century High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #14 of 144 statewide, top 9%, 1,427 students, 12% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 748 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 162d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The independent aerial image shows a large, irregularly-shaped roof structure, which may indicate a need for replacement.
• Major: exterior — The independent aerial image shows a lack of landscaping or fencing, which is typical for a townhouse in a rural or suburban setting.