7511 Big Valley Dr #13

Olivarez, TX 78589

$85,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 319 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,171/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $272/mo
• Annual: $3,258/yr
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.04%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,480 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Raul A Gonzalez Jr El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 618 students, 92% FRL); Mary Hoge Middle (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 938 students, 93% FRL); Weslaco H S (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,147 of 1,632 statewide, top 71%, 2,553 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 5.3% in Olivarez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.