7511 Big Valley Dr #13 · Olivarez, TX 78589

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 319 Days on market

Built 1998 960 sqft lot ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DRASTICALLY IMPROVED PRICE! 1/2 ACRE!! Discover a large, fully-fenced lot of over half an acre in North Weslaco, featuring a spacious and well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home that's ready to move into. Relish the evenings under the expansive covered front patio or the screened back patio, both enveloped by mature trees. The vast backyard boasts a beautiful, sturdy pergola and abundant shade. Nestled in a cul-de-sac within a quiet, sought-after subdivision near schools, the home is sold as-is and needs cosmetic repairs. Property DID NOT FLOOD after 2025 March flood. . WON'T LAST LONG AT $85,000. (Owner financing is NOT available. )

Key facts

• Built 1998
• Listed 319 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 5.3% in Olivarez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,480 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Raul A Gonzalez Jr El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 618 students, 92% FRL); Mary Hoge Middle (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #971 of 1,662 statewide, top 60%, 938 students, 93% FRL); Weslaco H S (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,147 of 1,632 statewide, top 71%, 2,553 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.04%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $3,579
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $25,623
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,171 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $828

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $301	+0% $272	+5% $242	+10% $213
Rent	-10% $179	-5% $225	+0% $272	+5% $318	+10% $364
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $293	base $272	+0.5pp $250	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-09-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-18
   price $85,000
3. 2025-08-18
   price $100,000
4. 2025-04-11
   price $110,000
5. 2025-04-10
   price $115,000
6. 2024-11-29
   price $129,999
7. 2024-10-12
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,125
• − Management: −$1,125
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$498
• After-tax cash flow: $2,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weslaco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844960
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,867
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8196
• State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

Livability — Olivarez

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1480
• US rank: #25356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olivarez, TX
• City population: 35,400
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-06 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $85,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $100,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $110,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $115,000 RGVMLS
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $129,999 RGVMLS
• 2024-10-12 Listed $150,000 RGVMLS