26 Fishkill Rd

Nelsonville, NY 10516

$650,000D-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,261 sqft · Built 1870 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,161/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$1,119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,084
• Net cashflow: $-451/mo
• Annual: $-5,408/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-451 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $570k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $516k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $516k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#615 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Haldane Central School District (town): math 65% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #84 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Haldane Elementary School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 292 students, 18% FRL); Haldane Middle School (math 57% / reading 82%, grade A, #89 of 729 statewide, top 12%, 197 students, 16% FRL); Haldane High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 314 students, 17% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $650k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.