26 Fishkill Rd · Nelsonville, NY 10516

$650,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,261 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1870 0.46 ac lot Est $647k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious property is just a stone’s throw to the charming center of town and major routes. Excellent opportunity to reimagine the space into your preferred living arrangement. Offers w/financing must be accompanied by pre-qual letter and down payment proof of funds; cash offers w/proof of funds. Seller will not complete any repairs to the property, either lender or buyer requested. The property is sold in as is condition. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

Key facts

• Heat pump
• Large front yard
• Wood-burning stove

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING STOVE
• HEAT PUMP
• SOLAR PANELS
• TESLA POWERWALL BATTERY SYSTEM
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• LARGE FRONT YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; No carport
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric service; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Propane; Public trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area measured
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (bedroom count not specified separately)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: First floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Built-in features; High-speed internet available; Natural woodwork; Original details; Pantry; Finished and partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-451 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $570k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $516k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $516k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#615 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Haldane Central School District (town): math 65% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #84 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Haldane Elementary School (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 292 students, 18% FRL); Haldane Middle School (math 57% / reading 82%, grade A, #89 of 729 statewide, top 12%, 197 students, 16% FRL); Haldane High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 1,100 statewide, top 10%, 314 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($640k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; list at $650k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $516,079 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.97%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $646,893
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Healy Rd	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,398 (+11%)	16mo	$620,000	$443	54
319 Main St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-11%)	24mo	$575,000	$513	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-133,931
• Equity at exit: $96,917

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-153,179
• Equity at exit: $56,200

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10516

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,161 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax from tax record: −$848 /mo · $10,178/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,084
• Net cashflow: $-451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,731

Max offer price $570,388

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-267	+0% $-451	+5% $-635	+10% $-819
Rent	-10% $-858	-5% $-655	+0% $-451	+5% $-247	+10% $-43
Rate	-1.0pp $-123	-0.5pp $-285	base $-451	+0.5pp $-619	+1.0pp $-790

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Church St Cold Spring, NY	3.0	1.5	1440	$8,000	$5.56	24d	1	1.17mi
11 The Blvd Unit A4 Cold Spring, NY	2.0	1.5	984	$3,400	$3.46	44d	1	1.29mi
3 Forge Gate Dr Unit B6A Cold Spring, NY	2.0	1.5	984	$3,400	$3.46	15d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $650,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $650,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $650,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $650,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $650,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $650,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $650,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $650,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $650,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $650,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $650,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $650,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,178 · $848/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,582 · $882/mo
• Expected delta: +$403/yr (+$34/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$10,178
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,954
• − Management: −$4,954
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$16,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,014
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Haldane Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613230
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $81,824
• Composite: 65.66/100
• National rank: #462
• State rank: #84 of 590 in NY

Livability — Nelsonville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #11167

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nelsonville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,607

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.80%
• Current HPI: 259.5306
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+42.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Listed $650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-19 Sold (MLS) $240,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-15 Price Changed $249,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-16 Listed $279,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-18 Price Changed $279,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-04 Price Changed $289,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-20 Price Changed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-02-05 Price Changed $309,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-22 Price Changed $329,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-07 Price Changed $359,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-09 Listed $451,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $456,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-14 Sold (MLS) $456,000 HGMLS
• 2006-05-19 Price Changed $469,000 HGMLS
• 2006-05-19 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2005-08-23 Listed $456,000 HGMLS

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,178 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.