19096 Dyer Ct #2

Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$184,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$306
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-73/mo
• Annual: $-876/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $51,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-876/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (2.7% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tenaya Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 179 students, 58% FRL); Don Pedro High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 50 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $140k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?