19096 Dyer Ct #2 · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$184,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · Condo public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1975 $188/sqft · 14% below area Est $216k · 14% under $306/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Townhome living on the golf course! Nestled within the gated resort community of Pine Mountain Lake, this property offers easy access to area amenities as well as providing a base for Yosemite and Sierra foothill adventures. Enjoy your morning coffee or do some grilling off the back deck with serene views of the 5th fairway. The open concept living space is anchored by a freestanding wood-burning stove, perfect for cozy evenings. The central kitchen is excellent for entertaining and features granite countertops, dishwasher, oven and included fridge. The home boasts updated laminate flooring and the convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer and tankless water heater. A modern exterior upgrade was recently completed in 2025 with new metal siding. This is an ideal getaway or short-term rental property, perfectly situated near all of Pine Mountain Lake's offerings: an 18-hole golf course, The Grill restaurant, tennis, pickleball, a 200+ acre lake with three beaches, a marina, swimming pool, equestrian center, and airport. Plus, Yosemite National Park and the historic gold rush town of Groveland are just a short drive away. Dyer Court HOA dues of $330/ month include water, sewer, common area maintenance, and building fire and liability insurance.

Key facts

• New metal siding
• Granite countertops
• $306 HOA

Tags

• GATED RESORT COMMUNITY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED LAMINATE FLOORING
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• NEW METAL SIDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-876/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tenaya Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 179 students, 58% FRL); Don Pedro High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 50 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $140k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,894
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -14.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-34,451
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,335
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,708/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$306
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,892

Max offer price $172,002

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $32	-5% $-21	+0% $-73	+5% $-125	+10% $-178
Rent	-10% $-215	-5% $-144	+0% $-73	+5% $-2	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-26	base $-73	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19223 Salvador Ct Unit C Groveland, CA	2.0	1.5	1106	$1,800	$1.63	15d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $306 · $3,672/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $184,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $184,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $184,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $184,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,900 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,900 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,900 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 72 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 71 DOM
19. 2026-03-20
    listed $184,900 Active 1262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1262 chars)

    Townhome living on the golf course! Nestled within the gated resort community of Pine Mountain Lake, this property offers easy access to area amenities as well as providing a base for Yosemite and Sierra foothill adventures. Enjoy your morning coffee or do some grilling off the back deck with serene views of the 5th fairway. The open concept living space is anchored by a freestanding wood-burning stove, perfect for cozy evenings. The central kitchen is excellent for entertaining and features granite countertops, dishwasher, oven and included fridge. The home boasts updated laminate flooring and the convenience of an in-unit washer and dryer and tankless water heater. A modern exterior upgrade was recently completed in 2025 with new metal siding. This is an ideal getaway or short-term rental property, perfectly situated near all of Pine Mountain Lake's offerings: an 18-hole golf course, The Grill restaurant, tennis, pickleball, a 200+ acre lake with three beaches, a marina, swimming pool, equestrian center, and airport. Plus, Yosemite National Park and the historic gold rush town of Groveland are just a short drive away. Dyer Court HOA dues of $330/ month include water, sewer, common area maintenance, and building fire and liability insurance.

20. 2021-08-17
    soldstatus $140,000
21. 2009-09-03
    soldstatus $90,000
22. 2004-02-25
    soldstatus $119,000
23. 2002-02-07
    soldstatus $35,000
24. 2002-02-07
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,708 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,708 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$1,708
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − HOA: −$3,672
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$3,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$935
• After-tax cash flow: $59/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+428.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $184,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2009-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2004-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,708 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.