39 Pine Hill Dr

Alfred, NY 14802

$149,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,243/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-48/mo
• Annual: $-572/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-572/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (16.6% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#110 in NY, #1,824 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Alfred-Almond Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #345 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.