39 Pine Hill Dr · Alfred, NY 14802

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1963 0.35 ac lot $81/sqft · 31% below area Est $217k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious Cape with large Picture window makes the living room bright and inviting. Eat in kitchen with wood burning fireplace, and door to back brick patio. Two bedrooms and full bath also on main floor. Upstairs there are two more bedrooms and full bath. Laundry is located in Basement. Basement has access to one car garage. 1 year AHS Warranty offered to Buyer

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1963

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot (100 x 154)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Separate/formal living room; Other interior features (see remarks); Bedroom on main level; Full basement; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-572/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#110 in NY, #1,824 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Alfred-Almond Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #345 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $124,304 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,892
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -31.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 High St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,908 (+3%)	7mo	$173,000	$91	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $15,084
• Equity at exit: $67,161

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $57,814
• Equity at exit: $103,632

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14802

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,243 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$186 /mo · $2,235/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $142,097

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $165,000 Active 582-char remark
17. 2016-05-24
    soldstatus $119,900 Closed Sale or Rented 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Spacious Cape with large Picture window makes the living room bright and inviting. Eat in kitchen with wood burning fireplace, and door to back brick patio. Two bedrooms and full bath also on main floor. Upstairs there are two more bedrooms and full bath. Laundry is located in Basement. Basement has access to one car garage. 1 year AHS Warranty offered to Buyer

18. 2016-05-24
    soldstatus $119,900

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Spacious Cape with large Picture window makes the living room bright and inviting. Eat in kitchen with wood burning fireplace, and door to back brick patio. Two bedrooms and full bath also on main floor. Upstairs there are two more bedrooms and full bath. Laundry is located in Basement. Basement has access to one car garage. 1 year AHS Warranty offered to Buyer

19. 2016-03-03
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Spacious Cape with large Picture window makes the living room bright and inviting. Eat in kitchen with wood burning fireplace, and door to back brick patio. Two bedrooms and full bath also on main floor. Upstairs there are two more bedrooms and full bath. Laundry is located in Basement. Basement has access to one car garage. 1 year AHS Warranty offered to Buyer

20. 2015-12-16
    listed $129,900 Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Spacious Cape with large Picture window makes the living room bright and inviting. Eat in kitchen with wood burning fireplace, and door to back brick patio. Two bedrooms and full bath also on main floor. Upstairs there are two more bedrooms and full bath. Laundry is located in Basement. Basement has access to one car garage. 1 year AHS Warranty offered to Buyer

21. 2015-09-30
    historical
22. 2015-06-26
    listed $129,900
23. 2008-08-12
    soldstatus $133,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,235
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,193
• − Management: −$1,193
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$3,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$751
• After-tax cash flow: $179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alfred-Almond Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602700
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,682
• Composite: 44.62/100
• National rank: #2772
• State rank: #345 of 590 in NY

Livability — Alfred

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #1824

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alfred, NY
• City population: 6,118
• Population (ZIP): 4,627

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 10% Asian 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Current HPI: 258.731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+12.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $149,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $165,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2016-05-24 Sold (MLS) $119,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-03-03 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2015-12-16 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS
• 2015-09-30 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2015-06-26 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS
• 2008-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,504 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.