1211 S Lamb Rd

Ridgecrest, CA 93555

$168,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,313/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-177/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-177/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#243 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, cost of living D+.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $168k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 9→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Ridgecrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.