3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,414 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 53 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,113/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$498
Tax + insurance
−$158
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$234
Net cashflow
$223/mo
Annual
$2,676/yr
Cap rate
9.11%
Cash-on-cash
10.06%
DSCR
1.45
1% rule
1.17%
Cash to close
$26,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $9k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#923 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Presidio ISD (town): math 39% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #535 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Presidio El (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 410 students, 95% FRL); Presidio H S (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 391 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 59% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Presidio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Presidio County population projected at -44% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.