611 Payne Hill Rd

Jefferson Hills, PA 15025

$150,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,587 sqft · Built 1941 · SingleFamily · Active · 302 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,644/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-8/mo
• Annual: $-97/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-97/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (1.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#397 in PA, #3,607 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• West Jefferson Hills SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #60 of 539 in PA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.5%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $150k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.1% in Jefferson Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?