815 Lewiston Rd

Medina, NY 14013

$129,900C-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,388/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$403
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $12/mo
• Annual: $146/yr
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($146/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#344 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oakfield-Alabama Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #408 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $130k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.8% in Medina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.