815 Lewiston Rd · Medina, NY 14013

$129,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1986 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 2,220 sq ft single-family home sits on a full acre, offering plenty of space both inside and out. Sitting just feet from 10,828 acres of the Iroquois National Wildlife Refuge. Featuring 3 bedrooms, a bonus room, and 1.5 baths, the layout provides flexibility for a growing family or creative living arrangements. An above-ground pool and generous yard give the property outdoor appeal, perfect for summer gatherings or landscaping projects. While the home needs some cosmetic updating, its size, layout, and ample land offer a strong foundation for a buyer looking to customize and restore a property to its full potential. Transparent pricing, reviewing all offers as they are submitted.

Key facts

• Generous yard
• Strong foundation
• Full acre

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• ABOVE-GROUND POOL
• GENEROUS YARD
• STRONG FOUNDATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($146/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.8% in Medina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#344 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Oakfield-Alabama Central School District (rural): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #408 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $130k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,620
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
955 Lewiston Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-10%)	15mo	$242,050	$121	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $69,831
• Equity at exit: $115,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $204,825
• Equity at exit: $246,140

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14013

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$349 /mo · $4,188/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-22
   price $129,900
3. 2025-12-02
   price $139,900
4. 2025-11-11
   price $144,900
5. 2025-09-16
   listed $149,900 Active
6. 1993-10-29
   soldstatus $65,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,188 · $349/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,188 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$4,188
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,332
• − Management: −$1,332
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oakfield-Alabama Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621510
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,041
• Composite: 41.71/100
• National rank: #3409
• State rank: #408 of 590 in NY

Livability — Medina

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #5814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,836
• Population (ZIP): 1,612

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,113 people
• By 2030: 54,140 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 49,368 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 43,911 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 32,511 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 21,695 · -61.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 14% Native American 12% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 33.0% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.79%
• Current HPI: 279.4703
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+97.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $129,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $139,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $144,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 1993-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $65,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,188 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.