45 Tivoli Gdns Unit C45

Tivoli, NY 12583

$194,999C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 562 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,128/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$325
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $8/mo
• Annual: $98/yr
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($98/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#829 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Road-Primary Grades (309 students, 23% FRL); Linden Avenue Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 404 students, 24% FRL); Red Hook Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 547 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.