45 Tivoli Gdns Unit C45 · Tivoli, NY 12583

$194,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 562 sqft · Condo · 10 Days on market

Built 1988 Good condition $325/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this bright and inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath condominium located in the well-maintained Tivoli Gardens community. This comfortable, 2nd floor condo offers a private balcony off the bedroom with peaceful views of mature trees and beautifully landscaped grounds, creating a relaxing setting to enjoy your morning coffee or unwind at the end of the day. The unit includes a one-car garage plus additional unassigned parking space for added convenience. Residents enjoy meticulously maintained lawns, attractive common areas, and picnic tables set up in the open green fields perfect for outdoor gatherings. Ideally situated in the heart of the scenic Hudson Valley, this condominium is just a

Key facts

• Landscaped grounds
• Picnic tables
• Private balcony

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• MATURE TREES
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED LAWNS
• ATTRACTIVE COMMON AREAS
• PICNIC TABLES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (RJB Community Management); Monthly association fee of $325; HOA services include landscaping, grounds maintenance, parking, snow removal, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Detached garage with garage door opener; Common parking lot with unassigned spaces and off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: One level; Entry level: 2
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Condominium property; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 rooms total (configuration not specified); Pets allowed: cats and dogs
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open kitchen; Pantry; No basement; No attic; Top-floor location (Second/Top Floor)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in bathroom; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($98/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#829 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: commute C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Red Hook Central School District (town): math 58% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #245 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Road-Primary Grades (309 students, 23% FRL); Linden Avenue Middle School (math 34% / reading 54%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 404 students, 24% FRL); Red Hook Senior High School (math 98% / reading 84%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 547 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $194,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $106,953
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $315,012
• Equity at exit: $378,840

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12583

• Home prices YoY: 25.9%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$325
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,117

Max offer price $194,999

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $76	+0% $8	+5% $-59	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-76	+0% $8	+5% $92	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $58	base $8	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $325 · $3,900/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,999 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,999 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,999 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,999 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,999 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,999 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $194,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − HOA: −$3,900
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$708
• After-tax cash flow: $806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 1-bedroom, 1-bath condominium in Tivoli Gardens offers a peaceful and inviting living space with a private balcony and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases rental value.
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more buyers/renters.
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases rental value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Hook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624240
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,040
• Composite: 50.84/100
• National rank: #1801
• State rank: #245 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tivoli

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #829
• US rank: #16069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tivoli, NY
• Population (ZIP): 1,927

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 92.35%
• Current HPI: 448.7788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $194,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid