4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1944
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 99 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,041/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$131
Tax + insurance
−$69
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$219
Net cashflow
$622/mo
Annual
$7,468/yr
Cap rate
36.17%
Cash-on-cash
106.69%
DSCR
5.75
1% rule
4.16%
Cash to close
$7,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $23k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 36.2% vs local median 5.7% in Shreveport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($32k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WH50WSCYZP88P3
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29