12269 ST Hwy 18

Conneaut Lakeshore, PA 16316

$189,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,213 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 270 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,151/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-403/mo
• Annual: $-4,834/yr
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.09%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (39.4% below list).
• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#932 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conneaut SD (rural): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #241 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Conneaut Lake-Sadsbury El Sch (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 303 students, 100% FRL); Conneaut Lake Ms (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #272 of 512 statewide, top 53%, 298 students, 100% FRL); Conneaut Area Senior High (math 95% / reading 24%, grade C+, #79 of 437 statewide, top 18%, 579 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 44% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.2% in Conneaut Lakeshore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.