12269 ST Hwy 18 · Conneaut Lakeshore, PA 16316

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,213 sqft · SingleFamily · 270 Days on market

Built 1973 0.32 ac lot $157/sqft · 11% below area Est $213k · 11% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dreams of owning a home in Conneaut Lake? Make them come true in this raised ranch style home featuring a master bedroom with en suite master bathroom, 2 additional bedrooms, and an additional full bathroom, first floor laundry, partially finished walkout basement and integral garage. The semi-open interior layout adds a wonderful flow and functionality to the house. The driveway is located on a private lane with a great backyard and back deck just a stone throws away from the lake and perfect for enjoying relaxing evenings or gathering with friends and family. The covered front porch looks out over the surrounding rolling landscape. Located just 0.9 miles from Oakland Beach Golf Course and 3.6 miles from downtown Conneaut Lake, this house is ready for you to make it your home in Conneaut Lake!

Key facts

• Private lane
• Covered front porch
• Back deck

Tags

• EN SUITE MASTER BATHROOM
• PRIVATE LANE
• GREAT BACKYARD
• BACK DECK
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (30.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.2% in Conneaut Lakeshore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#932 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conneaut SD (rural): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #241 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Conneaut Lake-Sadsbury El Sch (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #504 of 1,518 statewide, top 37%, 303 students, 100% FRL); Conneaut Lake Ms (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #272 of 512 statewide, top 53%, 298 students, 100% FRL); Conneaut Area Senior High (math 95% / reading 24%, grade C+, #79 of 437 statewide, top 18%, 579 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 44% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $115,133 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.09%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,693
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -10.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11667 Lakeland Dr	0.22mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,248 (+3%)	9mo	$355,000	$284	70
11694 Oakfield Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-1%)	2mo	$145,000	$121	63
12052 Lake Dr	0.23mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,315 (+8%)	11mo	$995,000	$757	59
11864 Oakmont Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+2%)	22mo	$190,000	$154	52
12003 Oakland Beach Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,126 (-7%)	14mo	$329,500	$293	48
11889 Oakland Beach Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,102 (-9%)	19mo	$220,000	$200	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $77,787
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $249,279
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16316

• Home prices YoY: 21.5%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $131,613

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-272	-5% $-337	+0% $-403	+5% $-468	+10% $-534
Rent	-10% $-494	-5% $-448	+0% $-403	+5% $-357	+10% $-312
Rate	-1.0pp $-307	-0.5pp $-355	base $-403	+0.5pp $-452	+1.0pp $-502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $189,900 Pending 270 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 270 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 269 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 268 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,900 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,900 Active 264 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 263 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 262 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $189,900 Active 261 DOM
10. 2026-03-26
    price $189,900 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    Dreams of owning a home in Conneaut Lake? Make them come true in this raised ranch style home featuring a master bedroom with en suite master bathroom, 2 additional bedrooms, and an additional full bathroom, first floor laundry, partially finished walkout basement and integral garage. The semi-open interior layout adds a wonderful flow and functionality to the house. The driveway is located on a private lane with a great backyard and back deck just a stone throws away from the lake and perfect for enjoying relaxing evenings or gathering with friends and family. The covered front porch looks out over the surrounding rolling landscape. Located just 0.9 miles from Oakland Beach Golf Course and 3.6 miles from downtown Conneaut Lake, this house is ready for you to make it your home in Conneaut Lake!

11. 2025-09-11
    listed $199,900 Active 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    Dreams of owning a home in Conneaut Lake? Make them come true in this raised ranch style home featuring a master bedroom with en suite master bathroom, 2 additional bedrooms, and an additional full bathroom, first floor laundry, partially finished walkout basement and integral garage. The semi-open interior layout adds a wonderful flow and functionality to the house. The driveway is located on a private lane with a great backyard and back deck just a stone throws away from the lake and perfect for enjoying relaxing evenings or gathering with friends and family. The covered front porch looks out over the surrounding rolling landscape. Located just 0.9 miles from Oakland Beach Golf Course and 3.6 miles from downtown Conneaut Lake, this house is ready for you to make it your home in Conneaut Lake!

12. 2025-07-31
    price $209,900
13. 2024-11-07
    price $219,900
14. 2024-09-10
    listed $225,000 Active
15. 2023-03-02
    historical Expired
16. 2022-12-02
    price $244,900
17. 2022-10-10
    status Active
18. 2022-10-03
    listed $249,900 Active
19. 2022-10-03
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$8,354
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,005
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conneaut SD
• NCES district ID: 4206590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,946
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3813
• State rank: #241 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conneaut Lakeshore

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #932
• US rank: #10138

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conneaut Lakeshore, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,688

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.22%
• Current HPI: 334.4533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $189,900 GEBOR
• 2025-09-11 Listed $199,900 GEBOR
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $209,900 GEBOR
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $219,900 GEBOR
• 2024-09-10 Listed $225,000 GEBOR
• 2023-03-02 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2022-12-02 Price Changed $244,900 GEBOR
• 2022-10-10 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2022-10-03 Listed $249,900 GEBOR
• 2022-10-03 Listed $249,900 West Penn MLS