20892 Deer Run Dr

Abingdon, VA 24211

$350,000F

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,424 sqft · Built 2000 · Townhouse · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,440/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$252
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-950/mo
• Annual: $-11,396/yr
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.63%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.41%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/4.0-bath townhouse listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-950 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (47.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (58.9% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $144k (58.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#59 in VA, #1,691 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Washington County Public School District (rural): math 68% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #15 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Abingdon Elementary (math 66% / reading 77%, grade A-, #299 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 423 students, 70% FRL); E.B. Stanley Middle (math 68% / reading 82%, grade A, #49 of 342 statewide, top 14%, 643 students, 66% FRL); Abingdon High (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 867 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 42% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.