4734 Hendron Rd

Hendron, KY 42003

$142,900C+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,600 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 304 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,567/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$749
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $360/mo
• Annual: $4,324/yr
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.81%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $40,012

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $143k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $988 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#244 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mccracken County (town): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.6% in Hendron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.