4734 Hendron Rd · Hendron, KY 42003

$142,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,600 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 304 Days on market

2.61 ac lot $40/sqft · 72% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Circa 1800s Homestead on 2.61 Acres in Lone Oak - Unique Restoration Opportunity! This late 1800s homestead stands as a quiet reminder of a bygone era. Once a proud family dwelling (see family history in Assoc docs), the home has been fully gutted & now offers a blank canvas for restoration to begin. The spacious room above the 3-car carport would make a great studio apartment with a separate entrance, becoming an income-producing space. With its original bones still intact, 10' ceilings & original transom doors, this property offers a rare chance to bring history back to life with modern comforts. The surrounding acreage provides space for gardens, a mini-farm, and outbuildings, among other amenities. Restored to its former glory, or reimagine it entirely, this property is ready for a new chapter! Home & property is being sold "AS IS, " WHERE IS. "

Key facts

• 2.61 acres
• Fully gutted
• Separate entrance

Tags

• CIRCA 1800S HOMESTEAD
• 2.61 ACRES
• UNIQUE RESTORATION OPPORTUNITY
• FULLY GUTTED
• SPACIOUS ROOM ABOVE CARPORT
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.6% in Hendron — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#244 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mccracken County (town): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $988 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,752 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.81%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $533,817
• List price: $142,900
• Delta: -73.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
160 Overlook Dr	0.20mi	4/4.0	3,646 (+1%)	1mo	$780,000	$214	84
475 Forest Rdg	0.25mi	4/3.0	3,527 (-2%)	6mo	$575,000	$163	80
1067 Lakeview Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	3,377 (-6%)	8mo	$425,000	$126	50
170 Spring Valley Cv	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,473 (-4%)	12mo	$480,000	$138	47
1165 Bleich Rd	0.34mi	5/2.0 (+1)	3,068 (-15%)	8mo	$112,000	$37	44
135 Spring Vly	0.63mi	4/3.5	3,361 (-7%)	18mo	$460,000	$137	42
1055 Lakeview Dr	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,300 (-8%)	12mo	$399,900	$121	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-252
• Equity at exit: $21,307

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $29,151
• Equity at exit: $12,355

Cash invested: $40,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42003

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$749
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $823/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $142,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,725
• Closing costs: $4,287
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $142,900 Active 304 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,900 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,900 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,900 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,900 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $142,900 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $142,900 Active 297 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,900 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $142,900 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,900 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $142,900 Active 289 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,900 Active 288 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $142,900 Active 287 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 287 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 286 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 285 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 284 DOM
18. 2025-12-24
    price $149,900 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Circa 1800s Homestead on 2.61 Acres in Lone Oak - Unique Restoration Opportunity! This late 1800s homestead stands as a quiet reminder of a bygone era. Once a proud family dwelling (see family history in Assoc docs), the home has been fully gutted & now offers a blank canvas for restoration to begin. The spacious room above the 3-car carport would make a great studio apartment with a separate entrance, becoming an income-producing space. With its original bones still intact, 10' ceilings & original transom doors, this property offers a rare chance to bring history back to life with modern comforts. The surrounding acreage provides space for gardens, a mini-farm, and outbuildings, among other amenities. Restored to its former glory, or reimagine it entirely, this property is ready for a new chapter! Home & property is being sold "AS IS, " WHERE IS. "

19. 2025-08-19
    listed $169,000 Active 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Circa 1800s Homestead on 2.61 Acres in Lone Oak - Unique Restoration Opportunity! This late 1800s homestead stands as a quiet reminder of a bygone era. Once a proud family dwelling (see family history in Assoc docs), the home has been fully gutted & now offers a blank canvas for restoration to begin. The spacious room above the 3-car carport would make a great studio apartment with a separate entrance, becoming an income-producing space. With its original bones still intact, 10' ceilings & original transom doors, this property offers a rare chance to bring history back to life with modern comforts. The surrounding acreage provides space for gardens, a mini-farm, and outbuildings, among other amenities. Restored to its former glory, or reimagine it entirely, this property is ready for a new chapter! Home & property is being sold "AS IS, " WHERE IS. "

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $823 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,229 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$406/yr (+$34/mo · 49.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,005
• − Property taxes: −$823
• − Insurance: −$714
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$4,157
• Taxable income: $2,095
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$503
• After-tax cash flow: $3,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mccracken County
• NCES district ID: 2103960
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $49,976
• Composite: 39.84/100
• National rank: #3871
• State rank: #16 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hendron

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #12105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,384

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.31%
• Current HPI: 236.3013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-11.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $149,900 WKRMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $169,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $823 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.