Kitson Plan

Howe, TX 75459

$233,999F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 295 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,840/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-489/mo
• Annual: $-5,870/yr
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $78,721

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-489 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (21.4% below list).
• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#368 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Howe ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #180 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summit Hill El (358 students, 69% FRL); Howe Middle (math 40% / reading 45%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 292 students, 49% FRL); Howe H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 352 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.