Kitson Plan · Howe, TX 75459

$233,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily · 295 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $233,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $281,147.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-489 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#368 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Howe ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #180 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summit Hill El (358 students, 69% FRL); Howe Middle (math 40% / reading 45%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 292 students, 49% FRL); Howe H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 352 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 295 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $184,026 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 295 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,147
• List price: $233,999
• Delta: -16.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
904 Cole St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	1mo	$232,999	$159	91
1640 Elliott Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	1mo	$216,199	$149	90
1629 Elliott Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,451 (0%)	2mo	$219,999	$152	89
1325 Elliott Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-2%)	1mo	$258,990	$181	88
1616 Elliott Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+1%)	2mo	$223,999	$153	87
1317 Elliott Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+10%)	1mo	$268,490	$169	75
1304 Kennedy Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+10%)	3mo	$238,990	$150	74
1301 Elliott Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,589 (+10%)	2mo	$239,000	$150	73
1504 Elliott Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+12%)	2mo	$243,999	$151	69
808 N Hughes St	0.68mi	3/3.0	1,444 (-0%)	2mo	$180,000	$125	62
1808 Douglas St	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,666 (+15%)	1mo	$249,000	$149	61
1625 Elliot Rd	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+14%)	2mo	$225,399	$136	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-76,684
• Equity at exit: $41,920

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-106,777
• Equity at exit: $24,308

Cash invested: $78,721 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75459

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,217/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,459

Max offer price $210,368

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-295	-5% $-392	+0% $-489	+5% $-586	+10% $-683
Rent	-10% $-635	-5% $-562	+0% $-489	+5% $-416	+10% $-344
Rate	-1.0pp $-348	-0.5pp $-418	base $-489	+0.5pp $-562	+1.0pp $-636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,287
• Closing costs: $8,434
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1317 Kennedy Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	45d	1	0.11mi
1301 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,850	$1.16	23d	1	0.18mi
1625 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,950	$1.18	45d	1	0.18mi
1636 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,950	$1.18	45d	1	0.18mi
1629 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,800	$1.24	45d	1	0.18mi
1632 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	23d	1	0.18mi
1520 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,100	$1.16	45d	1	0.19mi
1810 Clegg St Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	23d	1	0.22mi
406 N Denny St Unit B Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,599	$1.00	45d	1	0.92mi
116 N Western Hills Dr Howe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	852	$1,570	$1.84	0d	19	0.93mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $233,999 Active 295 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $233,999 Active 293 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,999 Active 292 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $233,999 Active 291 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,999 Active 290 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,999 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $233,999 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,999 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $233,999 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $233,999 Active 283 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $233,999 Active 282 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $233,999 Active 281 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $233,999 Active 278 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,999 Active 276 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,999 Active 275 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,999 Active 274 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $233,999 Active 273 DOM
18. 2025-08-30
    listed $233,999 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,217
• − Insurance: −$1,406
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$8,179
• Taxable loss: −$11,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,640
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823670
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,164
• Composite: 42.92/100
• National rank: #3119
• State rank: #180 of 826 in TX

Livability — Howe

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #368
• US rank: #7804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Howe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,620

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.75%
• Current HPI: 249.7211
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-30 Listed $233,999 Zillow